TBD Locked

Quantifying unpredictable token supply and governance risk

Overview

The Problem: Not All Unlocks Are Timed

Standard, time-based vesting schedules are only part of the story. A significant portion of a project's token supply can often be based on unpredictable events, not a fixed calendar. These unlocks can be triggered by

• Governance votes

• Achievement of specific roadmap milestones

• Team decisions

This creates a major blind spot for analysts, as this "event-based" supply could enter the market at any time.

Our Solution: TBD (To Be Determined) Locked

To solve this, we introduced TBD Locked, a classification that accounts for this uncertain supply. TBD Locked refers to tokens that are allocated but do not have a predetermined release date. Their unlock is contingent on future events or conditions being met.

Why TBD Locked Matters for Analysis

• Identify Potential Supply Shocks: A large TBD Locked supply represents a "supply overhang." A sudden DAO vote could release a significant volume of tokens onto the market.

• Assess Governance Power: A treasury with a large TBD Locked allocation potentially holds significant, deployable capital. Tracking this is key to understanding the resources a foundation or DAO has to influence the ecosystem.

• Track Changes Over Time: TBD Locked amounts are dynamic. We monitor governance proposals and announcements quarterly, and any changes are recorded in the History Log with links to the source. This helps you to follow the evolution of a project's tokenomics with a verifiable proof.

Methodology

Definitions

• TBD Locked Supply (To Be Determined Locked): Refers to tokens that are allocated but do not have a predetermined release date. Their unlock is depends on future events, such as governance votes or team decisions. On our charts, this is visualized with a striped pattern.

• Locked Supply: Locked tokens of a known, time-based release schedule.

• Unlocked Supply: Unlocked tokens of a known, time-based release schedule.

• Available Supply: Unlocked Supply + TBD Locked Supply

Generic Example of a TBD Locked Supply

TBD Locked Supply → Trigger Event → Time-based Release Schedule → Unlocked Supply

Example Case: Arbitrum ($ARB) Governance

A real-world example is how we handle the Arbitrum DAO Treasury.

• Initial State: Initially, a large portion of the treasury's supply had no defined unlock schedule, so we classified it as TBD Locked.

• Trigger Event: The Arbitrum community passed AIP-1.1, a governance proposal that assigned a 4-year vesting schedule to a specific portion of the treasury funds.

• The Update: Following this vote, we updated our data. The affected tokens were converted from the uncertain TBD Locked to the predictable Locked Supply (time-based release schedule).

• The Verifiable Proof: This change is documented transparently in the History Log, which details the proposal, the amount of tokens affected, and the new unlock dates.

Accessing TBD

We represent TBD with a distinct striped pattern on our charts in the Token Page, allowing you to differentiate between predictable time-locked tokens and this more uncertain event-locked supply.

Additionally, you can compare TBD supply allocated to token stakeholders, shown as a striped bar chart, on the Allocation Comparison page.

Using TBD

1. See Which Allocations are Affected

It’s not enough to know that TBD supply exists; you need to know who holds it. The Allocation component on the Token page shows you exactly which stakeholder holds these event-based tokens. This helps you determine if the uncertain supply is in the project's treasury, earmarked for community incentives, or held by another party.

2. Visualize on the Release Schedule

On the token page’s release schedule, TBD Locked tokens appear as a striped block. This signifies their potential to be unlocked at any point in the future, subject to the required conditions being met. When a formal release schedule is approved for these tokens, they are converted from "TBD Locked" to "Locked" on our chart.

3. Tracking Changes with the Historical Logs

TBD Locked amounts are not static. When a project sets a release timing schedule, a portion of these tokens become a known Locked Supply, reducing the overall TBD Locked amount.

We keep track of these allocations and update them as decisions are made. You can see the details with proofs in the History Log, which provides a transparent, auditable trail of all changes to a project's tokenomics.